The United States men's national team received a major boost just before its biggest match of the tournament.
Forward Folarin Balogun will be available for Monday night's Round of 16 showdown against Belgium after FIFA overturned the automatic suspension that would have ruled him out of the match. The decision gives the United States one of its top attacking threats back as it looks to reach the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 2002.
Traders on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket quickly jumped on the United States following the move. This provided a spike in the United States’ winning likelihood.
A Ridiculous Red Card
Balogun's availability comes after a dramatic few days following the United States' victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 and it has been visible in the prediction markets. The striker opened the scoring just before halftime, continuing his strong tournament, before being shown a red card midway through the second half after a challenge on defender Tarik Muharemovic.
Under normal circumstances, the dismissal would have triggered an automatic one match suspension. Instead, FIFA's disciplinary committee suspended the punishment and placed Balogun under a one year probationary period, allowing him to suit up against Belgium.
The timing could not be better for the Americans. Balogun has become one of the focal points of the U.S. attack throughout the tournament, and losing him for a knockout match would have significantly changed the team's game plan. Instead, head coach Mauricio Pochettino will have his preferred striker available as the Americans attempt to keep their World Cup run alive.
The decision was welcomed by U.S. Soccer, which said it accepted FIFA's ruling and was pleased that Balogun would be eligible for Monday's match. The federation added that its focus remains entirely on advancing past Belgium and thanked supporters for their continued backing throughout the tournament.
Balogun had already made his feelings known after the red card, arguing that the incident was simply part of a physical battle for position rather than conduct deserving of a sending off. He said situations like that happen naturally during matches and should be evaluated within the full context of the play rather than in isolation.
The ruling also sparked reaction outside the soccer world. Donald Trump praised FIFA's decision on social media, calling it the correct outcome and saying the organization had reversed what he viewed as an unfair decision.
Now, the attention shifts back to the field. With Balogun back in the lineup, the United States enters Monday night's clash with Belgium at full strength offensively. A victory would send the Americans into the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in more than two decades and keep one of the country's most memorable tournament runs alive.
Market Movement
The World Cup has been a significant event on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Before the announcement, the United States had a 50% chance to advance to the quarterfinals.
As soon as Balogun was cleared, the percentage spiked to 54%. This means a $10 trade on the United States would return $17.94.
It’s important to note that there is an American bias on the exchange. Yet, across most prediction platforms and even sportsbooks, the United States is a short favorite.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The United States has gone above and beyond to get to this point in the tournament. They have fed off the home crowd, and I see the same thing happening on Monday.
The return of Balogun is only going to add momentum to the United States.