Prediction markets keep pulling deeper into mainstream politics, and Wisconsin just added another layer to that conversation. Governor Tony Evers signed an executive order banning executive branch employees from using confidential government information to profit from prediction market activity.
The order also extends to immediate family members and outside groups that could potentially receive insider information from state workers. According to Evers’ office, there have not been any confirmed incidents involving state employees so far. Still, officials clearly want rules in place before something controversial eventually happens.
Political Contracts are Growing Fast
Prediction markets tied to Wisconsin politics have become much more active recently. Users can already trade on questions tied to the governor’s race, party nominees, legislative developments, and other political outcomes connected to the state. One report said more than $163,000 has already flowed into contracts tied to the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Wisconsin’s 2024 Supreme Court race reportedly generated more than $3.5 million in trading volume globally on Kalshi as well.
That kind of participation naturally raises questions about who might hold valuable information before the public sees it. State employees often work on sensitive discussions, policy planning, negotiations, and internal timelines that could, in theory, impact live contracts online. Evers’ executive order blocks executive branch employees from using nonpublic information obtained through their work for personal financial gain in prediction markets. Workers are also prohibited from helping others place trades using insider knowledge.
The State is Already Fighting Prediction Markets in Court
This executive order arrives while Wisconsin is already heavily involved in the broader legal battle surrounding prediction markets. Attorney General Josh Kaul recently filed lawsuits against several prediction market companies, arguing that sports-related contracts violate Wisconsin law. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission then sued Wisconsin in response. Arguing that federally regulated event contracts fall under federal, not state, oversight.
That fight is becoming one of the bigger legal storylines in national prediction markets. Several states are now challenging how these platforms operate, especially regarding sports-related contracts, while the CFTC continues to defend its federal jurisdiction. At the same time, the ethics side of the conversation is expanding separately from the courtroom battles.
Governments Are Trying to Get Ahead of Potential Problems
One thing that is becoming pretty obvious is that lawmakers and regulators do not want to wait for a major insider trading scandal before reacting. Officials in Madison and Dane County are already reviewing whether local ethics codes should specifically address government employees' participation in prediction markets.
Similar conversations are happening nationally, too. The U.S. Senate recently approved a resolution restricting senators and staff from using prediction markets that rely on insider political information. Traditional financial markets already have long-established insider trading laws.
Prediction markets create a slightly different environment because the contracts can touch politics, legislation, elections, economic policy, sports, entertainment, and dozens of other categories simultaneously. That leaves governments trying to figure out where existing ethics rules apply and where new rules may eventually be needed.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The most interesting part of this story is how quickly prediction markets have become important enough for governors, attorneys general, ethics boards, and federal regulators to actively respond to them. Not long ago, these platforms mostly lived inside niche finance, crypto, and forecasting communities.
Now, state governments are openly debating insider trading concerns, ethics restrictions, and regulatory authority around prediction markets before the industry grows even larger. We also think this is another reminder that prediction markets are no longer operating quietly on the edge of the internet. They are increasingly becoming part of mainstream political, financial, and legal conversations across the country.