Prediction markets have England as a heavy favorite in its final pre-World Cup tune-up match against New Zealand in Tampa, Florida on Saturday afternoon.
The 4:00 p.m. Eastern kick-off will see both teams enjoy one final turn on the grass before they begin competing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will begin next Thursday. England vs. New Zealand prediction markets at leading operator Kalshi are rightfully slanted in the former’s direction, given they are one of the top contenders at the upcoming tournament.
The match can be streamed on Prime Video in the U.S. or on ITV1/ITVX in the UK.
England vs. New Zealand Prediction Market Probabilities
Market data from Kalshi, America’s leading prediction market operator, at the time of writing states that England has a 69% chance of winning its friendly match against New Zealand. The Kiwis have a 31% chance.
Despite there being an enormous gulf in prestige between the two nations, New Zealand spent some time as the favorite in the market. England snatched the lead on Thursday afternoon and has slowly increased its hold since, arriving at its current 69% likelihood.
England’s only World Cup triumph came all the way back in 1966. It will begin its journey through the competition in Group L by facing Croatia, Ghana, and Panama.
New Zealand will see the pitch earlier as part of Group G, which features Belgium, Egypt, and Iran. A separate Kalshi World Cup prediction market shows that the country only has a 34% chance to qualify for the Knockout portion of the tournament, the lowest in the group.
England Preview
England had a couple of puzzling results its last two times on the international pitch, losing to Japan, 1-0, and drawing to Uruguay, 1-1, at the end of March. This was well off the typical mark of Thomas Tuchel’s side, which had won 12 of 13 matches immediately before that.
The Three Lions are healthy, although they committed several notable names, including Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, and Lewis Hall.
Most consider this to be England’s strongest side in decades. They have balance all over the pitch and a manager who has appeared in two Champions League Finals with two different clubs, winning one in 2021. Striker Harry Kane (12%) is also second in Kalshi’s expected probability to win the Golden Boot at the World Cup .
New Zealand Preview
New Zealand's 4-0 loss to Haiti in its match on Tuesday was not just bad, or disappointing, it was horrid. They had beaten Chile 4-1 in their match just before that, but had also lost three straight before that win.
The APAC representatives’ best recent result could’ve arguably come in a 1-1 draw against Norway on Oct. 14, when Finn Surman was on the mark in the 45+1 minute.
There are a few injury concerns for the All Whites heading into the World Cup. Midfielder Ryan Thomas is dealing with a hamstring strain and could miss the match, although he is fighting to be ready for the World Cup. Joe Bell also did not play against Haiti as he tries to find his way back onto the field, and striker Chris Wood received help for chronic knee pain in December and, while he has played, needs to be managed leading up to the tournament.
England vs. New Zealand Trade Handle Pick
England is flat-out the much better team here. Any chance of a New Zealand win would likely come from a dead-ball or long-ball situation where the ball bounces fortuitously, although that’s tough to depend on.
Even if the Three Lions rotate their squad and let their reserves get some run, they are more than capable of winning by multiple goals. Tuchel will want them in shape after their downswing in form the last time they were together, and as a great cup manager, he should know exactly how to get them to respond.
The Trade Handle England vs. New Zealand prediction pick is easy: England. We're not giving it a second thought.