Prediction markets were responsible for 27% of the total sports betting and trading volume associated with the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Bloomberg reported Sunday.
The report was based on the findings of H2 Gambling Capital, which estimated that prediction operators’ market share had tripled from its 9% at the beginning of the year. Kalshi also beat sports betting giants FanDuel and DraftKings in daily active users, according to mobile application platform Apptopia.
The staggering numbers
The World Cup represented a time of extraordinary growth for prediction platforms, which insist that regulatory and operational distinctions separate them from the gambling industry.
H2 Gambling Capital reached its estimates by turning prediction market trading volume into expected sportsbook betting handle. Sportsbooks and prediction platforms report their financial figures differently, but the estimates highlight the rapidly rising power of prediction operators.
According to estimates, prediction markets accounted for about 13% of legal sportsbooks’ betting volume in May. That soared to 27% one month later, showing the allure of prediction markets during marquee sports events.
America’s leading prediction markets operators, Kalshi, processed roughly $40 billion in trades since the World Cup began on June 11. Its top rival, Polymarket, sold $4.3 billion in contracts in one market related to the competition’s outright winner.
Smaller prediction outlets also saw strong increases in activity, even if that didn’t match their larger competitors. Robinhood venture Rothera saw an 86% increase in daily trading volume that hit $118 million in July.
“[Prediction markets] “put feet to the fire for these traditional sportsbooks to start offering a similar service,” said Bernstein analyst Ian Moore. “[It’s] a new opportunity for everyone.”
America is only eight years removed from the federal legalization of sports betting and the ensuing gambling wave that swept the nation. A similar development has occurred with prediction market operators, which only started offering sports event contracts under their Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) licenses in Jan. 2025.
A different corner of the market?
Prediction markets routinely argue that their products do not cross into the territory of sports betting; they operate a peer-to-peer system in which customers do not play against house-made odds, and they do not win money when customers lose.
Despite that, sports events were responsible for driving the majority of growth and activity in prediction markets. Combos, the prediction market equivalent of parlays, have also become increasingly popular since they were first launched in Sept. 2025.
Sportsbooks still won’t go out of business any time soon. Ed Birkin, a managing director at H2 Gambling Capital, said that prediction markets serve a different customer base than sportsbooks.
“It’s pretty clear that prediction markets have had a very good World Cup,” Birkin said. “I think they are less of a threat than some people make out, but they are definitely eating around the edges and these customers will allow them to continue growing their business.”
The next month and change will be a revealing time for prediction markets. The only major sports events on television are the MLB regular season and a couple of professional golf tournaments. These day-to-day “regular” games are where sportsbooks have dominated.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The success of World Cup prediction markets hit sportsbooks beyond simply losing their hold on the market. DraftKings’ stock is down 14.2% since the competition began, while FanDuel’s parent company, Flutter Ent., is down 4.4%. The continued support and legal authority of the CFTC suggests that prediction markets will continue to innovate and improve their offerings ahead of the busiest time of the year for sportsbooks during the NFL season.