Prediction traders have risked more than $125 million in World Series markets ahead of the MLB Playoffs, which begin on Tuesday evening.
Leading platform Kalshi reported that it processed $84.7 million in contract sales related to the next World Series champion at the time of writing. Competing platform Polymarket’s US hub also saw $41.4 million in trades, with traders at both platforms favoring the Los Angeles Dodgers by a substantial margin.
World Series prediction markets take shape
Pro baseball champion prediction markets have been open for close to a year. The Dodgers won the last two best-of-sevens, beating the New York Yankees in five games in 2024 and the Toronto Blue Jays in seven the following year.
The defending champs’ quest for a three-peat would put them in illustrious company with the Yankees (1936-39, 1949-53, and 1998-2000) and the Oakland Athletics (1972-74) as the only franchises to win three straight titles. They are the second seed in the National League playoffs and will face the winner of the Atlanta Braves’ and Philadelphia Phillies’ best-of-three showdown.
Prediction markets at both Kalshi and Polymarket ultimately believe that the Dodgers have a 30% chance of capturing another title, which would be the franchise’s 10th all-time. Their greatest competition is expected to come from the Milwaukee Brewers, the first seed in the NL. The Brew Crew (103-59) finished three games ahead of the Dodgers (100-62) in regular season standings and head-to-head matchups, 4-3.
Kalshi’s traders have placed the Brewers at an 18% chance of winning the World Series. Polymarket users aren’t quite as bullish and believe they have a 16% chance, implying they believe that there are more teams further down the board that have realistic chances of winning the title.
While Kalshi doesn’t show individual market leaderboards, Polymarket highlights the top holders for various positions. An anonymous user has $16,088.70 riding on the Dodgers being the last team standing, while “niceqqqqq3” owns $28,435.99 of contracts that say they will fall short.
Tracking the markets
There’s a clear divide between the Dodgers and Brewers and the remaining challengers.
Both platforms have highlighted the Tampa Bay Rays (11%) as the next team up. Their 98-64 campaign resulted in them claiming the first seed in the American League playoffs, which they will begin with a series against either the Yankees or Boston Red Sox.
The Yankees (10%) are fourth in expected probability at Kalshi and Polymarket before yet another fall-off to the third tier of contenders — although there is disagreement between the platforms regarding how they stack up.
Kalshi users have the San Diego Padres (7%) as the pack leader, followed by the Atlanta Braves (6%), Cleveland Guardians (6%), Red Sox (4%), Chicago Cubs (4%), Houston Astros (4%) and Phillies (4%).
Polymarket’s prediction markets have the Braves (7%) as the leader of the third tier, followed by the Guardians and Padres (6%) and the Red Sox, Cubs and Phillies (4%). They also have the Astros tied with the Chicago White Sox at 3%.
There’s been very little movement in market prices during the weeklong run-up to the beginning of the playoffs. Probabilities will soon become volatile depending on the results of every game, creating an ever-changing marketplace for users to buy and sell their favorite predictions based on real-time sentiment.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The Dodgers are substantial favorites for a reason. Their pedigree and all-world roster have helped them dominate the league for numerous years, but they failed to win their season series with the other top three teams in the NL. There could be hidden value in their expected opponents, whose probabilities would dramatically increase if they eliminated the Dodgers in the build-up to the World Series.