Soccer prediction markets are favouring Spain to beat Peru in a World Cup warmup in Puebla, Mexico on Monday evening.
Spain is neck and neck with France for the favorite to win the tournament, which will get underway on Thursday. Peru did not qualify for the competition after it finished near the bottom of the CONMEBOL qualification standings, meaning that this is nothing other than a friendly match for the South American nation.
The match will be broadcast live on FS2 and ViX and streamed on various platforms.
Spain vs. Peru Prediction Market Probabilities
Prediction market data from Polymarket, one of the leading operators, shows that the Spaniards have an 85% chance of winning the match. There is a 12% chance of a draw, and a 5% chance of a Peru win.
There was uncertainty in the market back in May, but Spain has been an increasingly large favorite over the last week. They climbed from a 78% chance of winning the match on June 1 to the 85% value at the time of writing.
This match will help prepare Spain for its defense of the European championship, which it won by beating England in the Final, 2-1. La Roja did not suffer a tie or a defeat during the entire tournament. It will begin its journey through the World Cup against Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay in Group H.
Peru does not have any upcoming competitions or matches after the friendly with Spain. Its next major international tournament will be the 2028 Copa America.
Spain Preview
Spain played a roundingly unimpressive 1-1 draw against Iraq when it took the pitch on Thursday, building off a goalless draw against Egypt on March 21. It had a great run of regulars before that, although its defense was carved open by more reputable nations, conceding two goals to Portugal, four to France, and five in two games against the Netherlands, dating back to last March.
Right winger and prolific attacker Lamine Yamal is expected to be fit for the World Cup opener after he battled a hamstring injury, although there’s no guarantee that he plays on Monday. Even without him, Spain has more than enough attackers to field a better team than Peru.
This match does not bear any impact on the World Cup, but Spain has a tricky group. They’ll want to shake off consecutive draws against countries without their level of talent or experience and be sharp heading into the Group Stage.
Peru Preview
The good news: Peru secured a 2-1 victory over Haiti in a match three days ago. The bad news: the country hasn’t won back-to-back matches since March 2024, when they beat Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic.
To add to that, Peru’s highest-ranked win since Oct. 2024, according to the FIFA world rankings, came against 77th-ranked Bolivia. They are also dealing with injuries to forwards Alex Valera and Edison Flores, both of whom suffered recent muscle tears.
Never say never, but Peru is a rightful underdog. Spain likely won’t play its best players heavy minutes and will be cautious with players who are working to be fit for the World Cup, but it should still field a better team than its South American opponent.
Spain vs. Peru Trade Handle Pick
Spain’s defensive lapses are a real concern when they run up against other high-ranked countries in the World Cup, which will take place in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Fortunately for them, they don’t have that issue with a Peru team that has struggled to find its form against any reputable opponent.
Spain has the attacking talent to carve open any defense. They only recently began training together and may not quite be on the same page, but this writer can’t confidently say they won’t win tonight’s match.
Even with a rotated squad that isn’t at peak chemistry, the official Trade Handle Spain vs. Peru's prediction market pick is La Roja, the reigning European champions and World Cup co-favorites.