The World Cup has been one of the most heavily traded events of all time on prediction markets, and it's just getting started. There is already more than $300 million in volume in the World Cup winner market, highlighting the massive amount of trading taking place every day.
The results so far have been shocking, to say the least. Spain tied Cape Verde, Belgium drew Egypt, and Saudi Arabia and Uruguay finished level after extra time.
Spain, Belgium, and Uruguay were all sizable favorites on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Many traders backed those favorites to get the job done and ended up getting burned by the draws.
Day of Substantial World Cup Losses
The trade that broke the internet occurred on Polymarket. One trader placed $1 million on Spain to beat Cape Verde, a country with a population of just over 500,000 people.
At first glance, it looked like an easy way to make more than $85,000 based on Spain's 92% win probability. Instead, it turned into a disaster.
Spain dominated from start to finish, and when you look at the underlying numbers, it's hard to believe the match ended in a scoreless draw.
The Spaniards generated 2.1 expected goals and created chance after chance. Cape Verde finished with just 0.20 expected goals and managed only one shot on target.
They controlled possession for only 26% of the match, but goalkeeper Vozinha delivered one of the performances of the tournament.
Vozinha reportedly gained more than 3 million Instagram followers during the match. The Polymarket trader probably wasn't one of them, considering the draw cost him $1 million.
The other result that emptied plenty of traders' pockets was Belgium vs. Egypt. While Egypt had enjoyed success against Belgium in previous meetings, the Belgians entered the match as clear favorites.
One Polymarket user, flickraw, wagered $1.5 million on Belgium to beat Egypt at 62% odds. Unfortunately, Egypt struck first, and despite a late equalizer from Belgium, the match ended 1-1.
Belgium created opportunities throughout the second half but failed to capitalize after an early mistake left them chasing the game.
Egypt finished with just three shots on target and generated virtually no expected goals. Belgium posted 1.35 expected goals and created two big chances but failed to convert either opportunity, resulting in a $1.5 million loss for the trader.
The Wins
Saudi Arabia had only a 13% chance of beating Uruguay on Kalshi, meaning there was an 87% probability they would not win the match. One trader wagered $351,007 on that outcome and walked away with more than $50,000 in profit.
Saudi Arabia was competitive throughout the match, winning 41 of 83 duels and recording nine saves. Still, they couldn't find a winner, allowing the trader to cash a sizable ticket.
Meanwhile, a Polymarket user named fishalive placed $400,000 on Spain not to beat Cape Verde. The position carried only a 9% chance of winning, but it paid off in a massive way.
Fishalive ultimately profited more than $4.3 million when Spain failed to break through.
Spain had one final opportunity to win the match on a late corner kick, but they couldn't capitalize.
Another trader on Kalshi took the opposite side, risking $2.3 million on Cape Verde not to win. With a 96% chance of cashing, the trade paid out roughly $88,000 in profit.
The Trade Handle Prediction Market Take
The opening World Cup matches have been a reminder that anything can happen on the international stage. The level of competition is much higher than what many teams experience in friendlies, and it can take time for favorites to settle into the tournament.
That reality has created huge opportunities for some traders while producing painful losses for others. The bottom line is simple: anything can happen on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.