USA vs. Türkiye World Cup prediction markets at the two leading platforms generated close to $12 million in trades in the days leading up to kick-off.
The USA has a 53% and 52% chance of winning the match at Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively. $12.2 million was traded in the markets as of mid-day on Wednesday, 34 hours before the teams take the field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
USA vs. Türkiye prediction markets
The latest financial figures show that Kalshi’s USA vs. Türkiye prediction markets produced $9.2 million in trades spread across major markets, player props, and game events. Polymarket’s U.S. platform added another $3 million, bringing the combined total above $12 million.
The late-night Thursday kick-off practically guarantees that the trading volume will increase substantially all the way until the match gets underway.
Kalshi’s prediction markets awarded the USA a 53% chance of winning the match. That’s a considerable improvement from the 40% chance they had three weeks ago, and it is a reflection of their excellent performances thus far.
Polymarket users see the match nearly the same. They have the Red, White, and Blue at a 52% likelihood of winning, after they had a 39% chance three weeks ago.
The team’s probability spiked to 42% after they beat Paraguay in their World Cup opener, 4-1, and to 49% after they beat Australia, 2-0.
Whale watching
Polymarket’s website displays the top traders in each prediction market.
User “mooseborzoi” holds $231,182.34 in shares predicting the USA will win Thursday’s match against the Turks. “AnonymousUsername” also has $79,829.48 worth of contracts, while “swisstony” has $98,850.76 saying the U.S. will not win the match, opening the door to Türkiye winning or drawing.
Interestingly, mooseborzoi and swisstony were among the top traders in the USA’s match against Australia. Both users sold several different positions for a profit.
How Far Can the USA Go?
The USA doesn’t have much to play for on Thursday after already locking up Group D, setting up a date with a to-be-determined third-place finisher from Groups B, E, F, I, or J.
With their spot in the Knockout clinched, Polymarket users believe that the U.S. is most likely to reach the quarterfinals before it is eliminated. The 28% chance of making the top eight is just ahead of it being eliminated in the Round of 16 (27%) and the Round of 32 (24%).
There’s nearly a one-in-four chance that the Americans reach the semifinals or the final, according to Polymarket’s World Cup prediction markets. The latest market data says there is a 13% chance they are eliminated in the semifinals, a 6% chance they lose in the final, and a 3% chance they win the entire competition.
USA vs. Türkiye Prediction Market Preview and Pick
The USA might rotate its squad to preserve its best players’ health and energy for the Knockout, although there’s no reason to expect they will drop their intensity levels. They outscored their opponents 6-1 thus far and have generally appeared more conditioned and technically capable amid their best stretch in modern history.
Türkiye is 0-2 in the World Cup, having lost to Australia, 2-0, and suffered a surprising loss (which we predicted) to Paraguay, 1-0. That’s despite them creating more expected goals than their opponents in both matches and possessing the ball for an average 75% of the time on the pitch.
Even if the Americans don’t need a result to advance, Turkey also can’t make the Knockout, even with a win. That means that this is just a matter of determining the better team, which, based on everything at this tournament, is the USA.
“Yes” prediction contracts for the USA to beat Türkiye are selling for $.52 and $.51 at Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively.