Prediction markets are heavily favoring Portugal to defeat Nigeria in a World Cup warm-up friendly at Estádio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa in Leiria, Portugal, on Wednesday afternoon.
Portugal is expected to be one of the top challengers for the World Cup trophy, alongside powerhouses such as France, Spain, England, Argentina and Brazil. Nigeria doesn’t have the same upcoming summer plans, as it failed to qualify for the World Cup and doesn’t have another fixture on its immediate schedule.
The 3:45 p.m. Eastern match can be streamed on Fubo and Amazon.
Portugal vs. Nigeria Prediction Market Probabilities
The latest data from Portugal vs. Nigeria prediction markets at leading operator Kalshi shows that Portugal has a 78% chance of winning the match. There is a 15% chance of a draw, and an 8% chance of Nigeria winning. Nigeria had a 34% chance of winning for around 12 hours on Sunday, although the mark hasn’t changed much since it bottomed out to 8%.
While the World Cup begins on Thursday, Portugal won’t play its first match until Wednesday, June 17. That gives it time for a final warm-up match before it competes for a spot in the Knockout bracket in Group K against the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uzbekistan, and Colombia.
Nigeria, as previously mentioned, will not be on hand at the World Cup after the Super Eagles were eliminated by DR Congo in a playoff. This marks the second consecutive World Cup that Nigeria has failed to reach, despite having a talented squad.
Although Nigeria isn’t playing for anything other than international experience, Wednesday’s match will provide one final glimpse at Portugal before it competes for glory on the sport’s biggest stage.
Portugal Preview
The Portuguese beat Chile on Saturday, 2-1, building on a 2-0 win over the USA at the end of March. They were in very poor form until then, playing a goalless draw with Mexico, dominating Armenia, but also losing to the Republic of Ireland and tying with Hungary.
Portugal has a talented, balanced, and experienced lineup full of world-class talent. Cristiano Ronaldo’s veteran presence anchors the front line, but they have plenty of attacking options and a creative midfield that should generate lots of chances.
Despite that, Portugal’s attacking threat hasn’t been felt in recent international matches. Manager Martínez is experienced and should have tricks up his sleeve before the World Cup.
All that said, this team hasn’t looked great when playing together recently. They also received a red card in their match a few days ago, and are a veteran enough side that they may overlook the Nigerians.
Nigeria Preview
Right off the bat, Nigeria has talent – not as much as Portugal, but enough to have qualified for the World Cup.
Incidentally, many of Nigeria’s best players weren’t in their squad the last time they took the pitch in a 2-2 draw with Poland on June 3. That result ended a two-game win streak, but they still haven’t lost in regulation in 20 straight matches.
Defender Igoh Ogbu suffered a torn Achilles tendon during a recent training session, which will keep him out of competition for the foreseeable future.
A full-strength Nigerian side could compete with Portugal, but it will be difficult for this iteration of the team, down its best players and an important defender, to match wits with an engaged Portuguese team.
Portugal vs. Nigeria Trade Handle Pick
Portugal is clearly better than a Nigerian team that is without its best players, most of whom play in attack. That said, the favorites have not been convincing in recent matches and could already be looking ahead to their upcoming matches. There’s something to be said for building winning habits, and with Nigeria’s long-lasting unbeaten streak in regulation, the official Trade Handle Portugal vs. Nigeria prediction market pick is for there to be a draw on Wednesday.