For all the excitement surrounding Team USA, Friday night is still about one thing. The USA absolutely needs to win the Group D opener and get its World Cup campaign off to the right start. Bigger tests are waiting later in the tournament, but they might not matter if they can't get off to a strong start.
A tie could be survivable, but hosting a home World Cup, a win could set up momentum to win Group D. A tie or loss puts Mauricio Pochettino's team fighting and scraping to get out of the group. A win keeps their position as the favorites to win Group D.
Paraguay won't care about the atmosphere, the storylines, or the fact that the United States is hosting. They've spent the last two years building a team that is difficult to play against, and they're arriving in Los Angeles believing they can take something from this match. Kickoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET on Friday, June 12. The match will air on FOX and Telemundo.
USA vs. Paraguay Prediction Market Probabilities
The market likes USMNT here. Home field is a big reason why. So is overall talent. If you compare the rosters man for man, the Americans simply have more players competing at top clubs and in top leagues. They are also healthier as Paraguay is missing one of their stars, Julio Enciso, who got injured in their last friendly.
But the reason this matchup deserves attention is that Paraguay doesn't play like most underdogs. They're comfortable sitting deep. They're comfortable defending for long stretches. They're comfortable winning ugly.
USA Preview
This group of American players has heard for months that it might be the deepest squad the country has ever taken to a World Cup. Now comes the part where they have to prove it. Christian Pulisic, a Golden Boot hopeful, remains the centerpiece, and while his club season ended poorly, he seems to have found his form again at the perfect time. It also helps that he has great support from other high-level players like Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Malik Tillman, Antonee Robinson, Sergino Dest, and Folarin Balogun, all of whom have the chance to play starring roles alongside Pulisic.
What makes the United States dangerous is its ability to attack from multiple areas of the field. What makes them frustrating at times is that they can still switch off defensively and give opponents chances they shouldn't. Pochettino's biggest challenge may not be tactics. It may simply be getting his team to stay composed if this game remains level deeper into the second half than fans expect.
Paraguay Preview
Every World Cup has a team that nobody seems particularly excited to play. Paraguay might be one of those teams. They don't have the star power of some other South American nations, but they're organized, physical, and generally willing to make every match uncomfortable. That's been their identity for years, and it helped them earn a return to the World Cup after missing the last three tournaments.
Julio Enciso is the obvious danger man. When he's healthy, he's the type of player who can create something out of almost nothing, and that's why the markets favor USA even more after his injury news. Miguel Almiron still brings experience and pace, while Diego Gomez has become an increasingly important piece of the midfield.
Defensively, everything starts with captain Gustavo Gomez. Paraguay's back line doesn't need to dominate possession. It just needs to keep games within reach long enough for the attack to find a moment. That's usually the formula. And more often than people realize, it works.
USA vs. Paraguay Trade Handle Pick
There's a reason the market continues to lean toward the Americans. Paraguay is capable of making this game messy. They're capable of slowing the pace down. They're capable of frustrating Team USA for long stretches. What they're not particularly good at is controlling matches against opponents with more attacking quality. Eventually, talent matters.
The United States has more of it. Pulisic is the best player on the field. The Americans have more ways to create chances. They're also playing in front of what should be a heavily pro-USA crowd in the opening match of a home World Cup.
That doesn't guarantee an easy night. It probably guarantees the opposite. But when the chance comes, the Americans should do just enough to take advantage of it.