There is only one World Cup match today, but it is a pretty good one. Spain and Belgium meet at SoFi Stadium with a spot in the semifinals on the line. Spain comes in as one of the strongest teams left in the tournament and has yet to allow a goal. Belgium is coming off its best performance by far, a 4-1 win over the United States that made the Red Devils look much more dangerous than they had earlier in the World Cup.
The market still sees a pretty clear gap. Spain is trading around 74% to advance, while Belgium sits near 27%. That makes Spain the obvious favorite, but Belgium has enough attacking talent to keep this from feeling easy.
Spain vs Belgium Prediction
Spain has not always been the most exciting team in the tournament, but it has probably been the most controlled. That matters a lot now. Spain has won four straight matches without conceding and rarely looks like it is being pulled into the kind of chaotic game an underdog wants. Portugal kept the Round of 16 match close all the way into stoppage time, but Spain still found the winner and never really looked rattled.
The thing I like most about Spain is that it does not need one player to carry everything. Lamine Yamal can create something out wide. Dani Olmo can find space between the lines. Pedri and Rodri can take over the middle. Mikel Oyarzabal has been finishing chances. If one part of the attack is not working, Spain has other ways to get at you. Belgium is much harder to trust.
For most of this tournament, the Red Devils looked old, slow, and overly dependent on individual moments. Then they went into Seattle and scored four against the United States. Charles De Ketelaere scored twice, Kevin De Bruyne was much more involved, and Belgium finally looked like the team people expected before the tournament. That performance matters. I just do not think it erases everything that came before it.
Belgium drew with Egypt and Iran. It needed a wild comeback to survive Senegal. It has also taken more dangerous chances than most of the teams still alive. Spain is a much less forgiving opponent. The loss of Amadou Onana is a big deal, too. Belgium needs energy and physicality in midfield against Rodri, Pedri, and Olmo. Without Onana, it may spend even more time chasing the ball and waiting for a chance to break through De Bruyne or Jeremy Doku.
Why Spain Is Such a Strong Favorite
Spain is trading around 74% to advance, compared to roughly 27% for Belgium. That is a big number for a World Cup quarterfinal, but I do not think it is unreasonable. Spain has the better tournament resume, defense, and midfield. Belgium has more momentum than it did a week ago, but one great night against the U.S. does not completely fix all the problems we saw earlier.
The market I find a little more interesting is Belgium to score. Belgium over 0.5 goals is trading around 61%, suggesting traders still think there is a decent chance Spain’s clean-sheet run ends today. Belgium certainly has the players to do it. De Bruyne, Doku, De Ketelaere, Leandro Trossard, and Romelu Lukaku can all create or finish a big chance.
Still, scoring once and advancing are two completely different things. Belgium could find a goal and still spend most of the match trying to survive Spain’s pressure.
Can Belgium Finally Score Against Spain?
Spain has not conceded a goal at this World Cup. That is probably the most impressive part of its run. Spain has already faced Uruguay and Portugal and still has not really been forced into a game where the defense looked overwhelmed.
Belgium may have more individual attacking talent than any team Spain has played so far. Doku can beat defenders one-on-one. De Bruyne can create a chance before the defense has time to settle. De Ketelaere should be full of confidence after scoring twice against the U.S. Lukaku gives Belgium a different option if it needs to play more directly late in the game.
The problem is getting those players into good positions. Spain is excellent at closing down the middle and winning the ball back before a counterattack can develop. Belgium’s best chances may come from moving the ball quickly into wide areas and trying to isolate Doku against Pedro Porro.
I also think Belgium needs the first goal. If Spain scores first, Belgium will have to open up, and that usually plays directly into Spain’s hands.
Will Spain Score More Than Once?
Spain is trading around 60% to score at least two goals in regulation. That number makes sense to me. Belgium has already allowed five goals in the tournament and has given up plenty of quality chances. Even in the 4-1 win, the United States found openings. Senegal led 2-0 before Belgium somehow turned that match around.
Spain is more patient than either of those teams. It does not need to force the game early. If Belgium sits deep, Spain will keep moving the ball until something opens. If Belgium tries to press, Spain has the technical quality to play through it. I do not expect another 4-1 type of game, but I do think Spain gets to two.
Could This Go to Extra Time or Penalties?
Belgium’s best path is probably keeping this level as long as possible. Spain is the better team over 90 minutes, but knockout games change once extra time becomes a real possibility. Fatigue matters. Substitutions matter. Pressure starts to take over. Belgium also has Thibaut Courtois in goal, which makes any penalty shootout more interesting.
The issue is getting the match that far. Spain has been excellent in the late stages of games and has already found a stoppage-time winner against Portugal. Even if this is tied in the final 15 minutes, I expect Spain to keep pushing rather than settle for penalties. I think Belgium makes Spain work, but I do not think this reaches a shootout.
Trade Handle Pick: Spain 2, Belgium 1
Spain vs Belgium: How To Watch
Kickoff: 3:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The market is treating Spain like a real favorite here, not just a slightly better team. A 74% advance price says traders see a meaningful gap, even after Belgium’s impressive win over the United States. The obvious question is whether the market has gone too far, given Spain’s clean sheets and Belgium’s rough start. I do not think it has. Belgium can absolutely score. It may even make Spain uncomfortable for long stretches.
But Spain has given us a much larger sample of strong performances. It defends better, controls the middle better, and seems to have a more reliable plan when the first idea does not work. Belgium’s case is that the U.S. match was the start of something. Maybe De Bruyne has finally found his rhythm. Maybe De Ketelaere is ready to take over. Maybe Doku creates the one matchup Spain cannot solve. That is possible. Spain has just given us a lot more reasons to trust it.
Recent World Cup Scores
Thursday, July 9
France 2, Morocco 0
Kylian Mbappé scored his eighth goal of the tournament and added an assist as France became the first team to reach the semifinals. Ousmane Dembélé added the second goal shortly after Mbappé opened the scoring.
Tuesday, July 7
Argentina 3, Egypt 2
Argentina erased a two-goal deficit with three goals in the final 12 minutes. Cristian Romero started the comeback, Lionel Messi equalized, and Enzo Fernández scored the winner in stoppage time.
Switzerland 0, Colombia 0, Switzerland advances 4-3 on penalties
Switzerland reached the quarterfinals after a scoreless match and a penalty shootout win over Colombia.
Monday, July 6
Belgium 4, United States 1
Belgium ended the United States’ home World Cup run with its best performance of the tournament. Charles De Ketelaere scored twice, while Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku also found the net.
Spain 1, Portugal 0
Mikel Merino scored in stoppage time as Spain eliminated Portugal and ended Cristiano Ronaldo’s World Cup career.