The World Cup quarterfinal picture is starting to take shape, and the bracket already looks a lot different than expected. Brazil is out. Germany is out. The Netherlands is out. Canada is out. Mexico is out. Norway, Morocco, and England have all survived wild knockout matches. Now Monday gives us two huge Round of 16 matchups. Portugal and Spain meet in an all-Iberian showdown at AT&T Stadium, while the United States faces Belgium in Seattle with a chance to reach the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 2002.
From a prediction market angle, this is exactly where things get interesting. Spain looks like the cleaner favorite against Portugal, but rivalry games rarely feel simple. The U.S. is not the biggest name left in the bracket, but the market and the matchup both suggest this is a real chance for the Americans to keep the home World Cup run going.
Worth Reading: USA Odds Spike After Folarin Balogun Cleared to Play
Portugal vs Spain Prediction
This is the type of match that feels too big for the Round of 16. Spain has looked like the better team so far. La Roja won Group H, handled Austria 3-0, and still has not conceded a goal in the tournament. That matters. In knockout soccer, control is everything, and Spain has been able to control matches without needing to chase chaos.
Portugal has survived, but it has not fully convinced. The late winner against Croatia kept the tournament alive, and Cristiano Ronaldo still gives this match a massive storyline. But Spain’s midfield, pressing, and defensive shape feel like a tough matchup for Portugal. The question is whether Portugal can create enough without turning the game into long stretches of Spain possession.
If Portugal has to defend for 60 minutes, that is probably bad news. If Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Rafael Leao, and Ronaldo can generate real transition moments, this gets much more interesting. I think Spain is simply cleaner right now. Portugal has enough talent to make it tense, but Spain has been the more complete team.
Trade Handle Pick: Spain 2, Portugal 1
Portugal vs Spain: How To Watch
Kickoff: 3:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
United States vs Belgium Prediction
This is the biggest U.S. match in a long time. The Americans are at home, they are in form, and the bracket has opened up enough that a quarterfinal run is very real. The 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina was not perfect, especially with the Folarin Balogun red-card scare, but the U.S. handled business.
Now Balogun is available, Christian Pulisic is back involved, and the core group looks rested enough for a real push. Belgium is dangerous, but it has not looked trustworthy. The Red Devils needed a wild late comeback to beat Senegal, and for long stretches of that match, they looked like a team waiting for someone to save them. Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Jeremy Doku, and Leandro Trossard can still punish anyone. That is the scary part.
But the U.S. has the legs to make this uncomfortable. Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie can turn this into a physical midfield battle, while Pulisic and Balogun give the Americans enough direct threat to attack Belgium’s back line. This feels like a match where the U.S. does not need to dominate possession. It needs to play fast, win second balls, and make Belgium defend in space. If that happens, I like the Americans to find a way.
Trade Handle Pick: United States 2, Belgium 1 in extra time
United States vs Belgium: How To Watch
Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Monday is one of those days when reputation and current form are pulling in different directions. Portugal has the stars, the history, and Ronaldo’s last World Cup storyline. Spain has been the better team. Belgium has the bigger international names. The United States has looked sharper, faster, and more connected for most of this tournament.
That is what makes the markets fun here. Spain feels like the more reliable side, but Portugal has enough individual quality to make the price uncomfortable. The U.S. vs Belgium market is even more interesting because it is not just about roster value. It is about energy, confidence, home-field advantage, and whether Belgium’s older core can survive another high-pressure knockout match. The knockout stage has already reminded everyone that favorites are not safe.
Brazil led late and still went home. Germany and the Netherlands went out on penalties. Argentina needed extra time against Cape Verde. Belgium needed stoppage-time drama against Senegal. So the pick is not just “who is better on paper.” It is those who can handle the game when it gets messy. I trust Spain’s control in the first match. I trust the U.S. energy and home-field edge in the second.
Recent World Cup Scores
Sunday, July 5
Norway 2, Brazil 1
Norway pulled off one of the biggest shocks of the tournament as Erling Haaland scored twice late to eliminate Brazil and send Norway to its first World Cup quarterfinal.
England 3, Mexico 2
England survived a wild match against Mexico despite going down to 10 men. Jude Bellingham scored twice, Harry Kane added a penalty, and England moved on to the quarterfinals.
Saturday, July 4
Morocco 3, Canada 0
Morocco ended Canada’s home World Cup run with a convincing win. Azzedine Ounahi scored twice as Morocco moved into the quarterfinals.
France 1, Paraguay 0
Kylian Mbappé scored from the penalty spot as France survived Paraguay and advanced to the quarterfinals.
Friday, July 3
Egypt 1, Australia 1, Egypt advances 4-2 on penalties
Egypt earned its first World Cup knockout win after beating Australia in a penalty shootout.
Argentina 3, Cape Verde 2 after extra time
Argentina survived a major scare against Cape Verde. Lionel Messi scored, Lautaro Martínez struck in extra time, and an own goal finally pushed Argentina through.
Colombia 1, Ghana 0
Jhon Arias scored early as Colombia beat Ghana and claimed the final Round of 16 spot.