Thursday reminded us why late group-stage matches are so tricky. Germany and the United States had already won their groups, then both lost with rotated lineups. Ecuador stunned Germany to reach the knockout rounds. Türkiye beat the USMNT with a goal on the final kick. Ivory Coast, Japan, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Australia also booked their places in the Round of 32.
Now, Friday gives us another huge slate. Norway and France meet with first place in Group I on the line. Spain tries to finish off Group H against a struggling Uruguay. Belgium is still searching for its first win and cannot afford a disaster against New Zealand. Cape Verde has a chance to turn one of the best stories of the tournament into a knockout-round place.
Norway vs France Prediction
This is easily the biggest match of the day, maybe of the entire World Cup so far. Norway and France are both already through, but first place in Group I matters. France is trading around 62% to win, Norway is around 21%, and the draw sits near 20%. That market is basically saying France is still the better overall team, even with Erling Haaland playing like a Golden Boot favorite.
Haaland has been incredible. Norway has scored seven goals through two matches, and Martin Odegaard gives this team more than just a superstar striker. The problem is that France can match the star power and then keep going. Kylian Mbappe has also scored four goals, and France has more attacking depth than anyone in the tournament. This should be fun. It may also tell us whether Norway is a real knockout-round problem or just a very dangerous second-tier team.
Trade Handle Pick: France 3, Norway 2
Norway vs France: How To Watch
Kickoff: 3:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Senegal vs Iraq Prediction
Senegal has been one of the more frustrating teams in the tournament.
It has lost twice, but it also had the toughest possible start against France and Norway. Now, Senegal gets Iraq, and the market is expecting a clear response. Senegal is trading around 79% to win, while Iraq sits around 8%.
The bigger question is not just whether Senegal wins. The question is whether Senegal can win enough to feel good about its third-place chances. That matters because both teams enter with no points. A draw sends both home. A narrow Senegal win might still leave it sweating. A multi-goal win could change everything.
Iraq has fought, but Senegal has too much quality in the final third. This feels like the kind of match where the market may be right, but the real trading angle is margin and goal difference.
Trade Handle Pick: Senegal 3, Iraq 1
Senegal vs Iraq: How To Watch
Kickoff: 3:00 PM ET
TV: FS1, Universo
Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Uruguay vs Spain Prediction
This would have looked like one of the best group-stage matches before the tournament started. Now it feels more like a test of whether Uruguay has anything left. Spain is trading around 63% to win, while Uruguay is down near 13%. That is a massive gap for a match between two countries with this much World Cup history, but it lines up with how both teams have looked.
Spain had the weird opening draw with Cape Verde, then responded with a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia. Uruguay has not found any rhythm. The draws with Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde leave it needing a result, and probably a win, just to feel safe. The concern for Uruguay is that chasing Spain can get ugly. If La Roja has space for Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Pedri, and Rodri to control the match, this could look one-sided.
Trade Handle Pick: Spain 2, Uruguay 0
Uruguay vs Spain: How To Watch
Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, Mexico
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia Prediction
This is the match that might have the most heart. Cape Verde has already taken points from Spain and Uruguay. That alone makes this one of the best stories of the World Cup. Now it has a real chance to reach the knockout rounds in its first appearance.
The market sees this as close. Cape Verde is around 37% to win, Saudi Arabia around 35%, and the draw around 29%. That feels right because this is no longer really about pedigree. It is about belief, pressure, and who handles the moment better. Saudi Arabia needs a win.
Cape Verde may be able to advance with a draw depending on the rest of the field, but it will not want to leave everything to third-place math. I think Cape Verde has earned the benefit of the doubt. It has already shown it can stay organized against better teams. Against Saudi Arabia, it should have more chances to create.
Trade Handle Pick: Cape Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 1
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia: How To Watch
Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET
TV: FS1, Universo
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Egypt vs Iran Prediction
This is one of the more interesting markets of the day because the draw is priced so high. Egypt is around 40% to win, Iran is around 24%, and the draw is sitting around 37%. That tells you traders think both teams may be comfortable enough to avoid a loss, especially with Egypt already on four points and Iran on two.
Egypt has quietly had one of the better group-stage runs. Mohamed Salah finally has a real World Cup moment, and Egypt can win the group with a victory. Iran has not yet won, but it is unbeaten and hard to break down. This feels like a match where Egypt is slightly better, Iran is exactly the type of opponent that can drag it into a low-margin game, but Egypt will find a late winner.
Trade Handle Pick: Egypt 2, Iran 1
Egypt vs Iran: How To Watch
Kickoff: 11:00 PM ET
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
New Zealand vs Belgium Prediction
Belgium has been one of the tournament's biggest disappointments so far. Two matches. Two draws. Very little attacking rhythm. Now the Red Devils need to beat New Zealand to avoid turning a bad start into a disaster. The market still believes in Belgium, pricing it around 84% to win. That says more about the matchup than Belgium's form.
New Zealand has shown some fight, but it has also conceded five goals through two matches and likely needs a win to stay alive. Belgium should have too much quality here. Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Jeremy Doku, and Leandro Trossard should eventually find chances. The issue is that Belgium has not yet earned much trust. Still, if it cannot win this one, it probably does not deserve to be in the knockout rounds.
Trade Handle Pick: Belgium 2, New Zealand 0
New Zealand vs Belgium: How To Watch
Kickoff: 11:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Universo
Location: BC Place, Vancouver, Canada
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Friday is all about separating reputation from reality. France is still priced like a true title contender, but Norway has the goals and star power to make that market uncomfortable. Spain is being treated like the clear better team against Uruguay, which says a lot about how far Uruguay's stock has fallen. Belgium is still heavily favored despite doing very little through two matches, because the market clearly believes the talent gap against New Zealand is too large to ignore.
The most interesting market may be Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia. Cape Verde was not supposed to be in this position, but prediction markets are no longer treating it like a novelty. A 37% win price against Saudi Arabia says traders believe this team is real enough to finish the job. The draw prices also matter today. Egypt-Iran has a draw sitting around 37%, while Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia is near 29%. Those are not random.
They reflect the reality of the final group-stage round, where some teams need wins, some teams need points, and some teams are trying to avoid opening themselves up at the worst possible time. From a bigger tournament view, France and Spain can strengthen their positions near the top of the title market. Belgium can calm things down. Cape Verde can become one of the stories of the tournament. And Norway can prove it is much more than a fun group-stage team with Haaland goals.
Yesterday's World Cup Scores
Thursday gave us multiple upsets, several new knockout teams, and another reminder that motivation matters once teams have already secured their place.
Türkiye 3, United States 2
A heavily changed USMNT lineup lost on the final kick of the match. Türkiye scored through Arda Guler, Baris Yilmaz, and Kaan Ayhan, while Auston Trusty and Sebastian Berhalter scored for the United States.
Ivory Coast 2, Curaçao 0
Nicolas Pepe scored twice as the Ivory Coast reached the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time. Curaçao's debut tournament ended after a brave but difficult group-stage run.
Ecuador 2, Germany 1
Ecuador stunned Germany with a comeback win and reached the knockout rounds. Germany had already secured first place in Group E, but the result still raised questions about its depth and rotation.
Japan 1, Sweden 1
Japan and Sweden shared the points, and both teams booked their places in the knockout rounds. Japan stayed unbeaten through group play.
Netherlands 3, Tunisia 1
The Netherlands handled business against already eliminated Tunisia and set up a Round of 32 meeting with Morocco.
Paraguay 0, Australia 0
Australia advanced with the draw, while Paraguay remains well-positioned to join the knockout field as a third-place qualifier.