The excitement level is off the charts after a fantastic first full day of knockout round games. Brazil came from behind, and Gabriel Martinelli came up clutch in extra time to beat Japan. The upset of the World Cup so far is that Germany is already out after losing to Paraguay on penalties. The Netherlands is out too in a similar fashion, with Morocco winning a sloppy shootout after scoring a late equalizer.
That is the new reality now. It is not just about picking the better team over 90 minutes. There are no more ties, and games can go up to 120 minutes with extra time, and penalty kicks are the ultimate pressure cooker. Tuesday brings three more Round of 32 matches: Ivory Coast vs. Norway, France vs. Sweden, and Mexico vs. Ecuador.
Ivory Coast vs Norway Prediction
This is a sneaky good matchup to start the day. Norway has Erling Haaland, which automatically changes how you look at this game. One half-chance can turn into a goal, and Norway has already shown it can create enough chances around him with Martin Odegaard, Alexander Sorloth, and Antonio Nusa.
Ivory Coast is not just happy to be here, though. The Elephants beat Ecuador, pushed Germany, and then handled Curaçao to reach the knockout rounds. Nicolas Pepe scored twice in that last match, and there is enough pace and power in this team to make Norway defend in uncomfortable spots.
The question is whether Ivory Coast can keep Haaland from getting those two or three big moments. I think they can make this tight, but Norway's finishing edge matters in knockout games.
Trade Handle Pick: Norway 2, Ivory Coast 1
Ivory Coast vs Norway: How To Watch
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
France vs Sweden Prediction
France feels like the cleanest pick of the day. Les Bleus went perfect in the group stage, then made a statement against Norway with a 4-1 win. Ousmane Dembele scored a first-half hat trick, Kylian Mbappe is still one of the main Golden Boot threats, and France has the kind of depth that makes it feel like a bad matchup for almost everyone.
Sweden has some real attackers. Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres, and Anthony Elanga can all cause problems, especially if France gets loose defensively. But Sweden also gave up five goals to the Netherlands, and this is not the opponent you want to face if you are still trying to figure things out at the back.
The one thing that can make this interesting is Sweden scoring first. If that happens, the live market could get jumpy. But over 90 minutes, France has too many ways to create chances.
Trade Handle Pick: France 3, Sweden 1
France vs Sweden: How To Watch
Kickoff: 5:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction
This is the match I keep coming back to. Mexico was perfect in the group stage. Three wins, no goals allowed, and a home crowd that should make Estadio Banorte feel like a nightmare for Ecuador. That is the case for Mexico.
The case for Ecuador is that this is not a normal third-place team. Ecuador just beat Germany. It has a strong midfield, a tough back line, and enough experience to sit in a hostile stadium without panicking. Moises Caicedo, Piero Hincapie, William Pacho, and Enner Valencia give Ecuador a real spine.
This feels like a match where both teams know one mistake could end the tournament. Mexico has been excellent defensively, but Ecuador is also built to drag games into the mud. I do not see many clean chances either way. So I am not picking this as a normal 90-minute result. I think Mexico and Ecuador will go to extra time, and from there, penalties feel very much on the table.
Trade Handle Pick: Mexico 0, Ecuador 0. Mexico advances on penalties.
Mexico vs Ecuador: How To Watch
Kickoff: 9:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The first full day of Round of 32 action was a pretty clear warning.
Brazil was supposed to be safe and still needed a goal in the 95th minute. Germany was a heavy favorite and is now out. The Netherlands was minutes away from advancing and still lost on penalties. That is why knockout markets can get wild in a hurry.
Tuesday has one clear favorite in France, but the other two matches feel much more live. Norway has the best player on the field against Ivory Coast, but the Elephants have enough athleticism to make it uncomfortable. Mexico has the home crowd and the perfect group-stage record, but Ecuador might be the kind of opponent that can turn that pressure against them if the match stays close.
The biggest thing to remember now is that the 90-minute price is not the whole story. Extra time and penalty shootouts matter. Teams do not always need to be better for 120 minutes. Sometimes they just need to stay alive long enough to create chaos. That is why Mexico vs Ecuador is the most interesting market of the day for me. It feels like the type of game where the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the host nation.
Yesterday's World Cup Scores
Monday, June 29
Brazil 2, Japan 1
Brazil survived one of the toughest Round of 32 tests thanks to Gabriel Martinelli's stoppage-time winner. Japan led through K. Sano before Casemiro equalized in the second half.
Germany 1, Paraguay 1, Paraguay advances 4-3 on penalties
The biggest shock of the knockout stage so far. Germany scored through Kai Havertz, but Julio Enciso answered for Paraguay before Orlando Gill came up huge in the shootout.
Netherlands 1, Morocco 1, Morocco advances 3-2 on penalties
Morocco stunned the Netherlands after Issa Diop equalized in stoppage time. The Atlas Lions then won the penalty shootout to set up a Round of 16 match against Canada.